2022 will centre around trust. Trust in policymakers, trust in markets, trust in each other. With the previously spectacular economic recovery in advanced economies taking a more normal shape, short and longer-term issues will come into full focus and collide. In emerging markets, the post-pandemic economic rebound is set to continue in 2022, but with great divergence among countries. Here, too, people’s views on solidarity and fairness are now taking centre stage. And with these views their perception of trust.
We present our 2022 outlook for advanced economies and emerging markets in three different scenarios: our base scenario, the most likely outcome and, compared to the base scenario, a more upbeat and a more downbeat scenario. These scenarios are essentially triggered by the trust that businesses and households have in the government and investors in dealing with the pandemic and the spillovers that this has on investments, consumption, and international trade.
In our long-term outlook we draw an economic picture based on the need to build a more sustainable and inclusive economy that delivers wellbeing for all. Such an economy requires a profound transformation of our current system. An essential element of any transition or transformation is trust.