"It’s vital to tell hype from reality"

De Vries has seen markets deliver solid returns but argues that not everything is based on solid foundations in the real economy. Stock markets achieved record highs in 2025, driven by an explosion of investment in artificial intelligence (AI) and defence spending. It is difficult to distinguish hype from reality, he warns.

The reality is that global economic growth is expected to reach 3.2 per cent in 2025. The forecast for 2026 is 3 per cent, with the US slumping to around 2 per cent as a result of new trade tariffs and declining consumer spending. Emerging markets appear more robust, with growth expected to reach 4 per cent, although this growth is unevenly distributed. Asia remains the driving force, while other countries suffer from political instability, inflation and capital flight.

It is a mixed picture and certainly no cause for a stock market celebration, notes De Vries. "Not when you consider geopolitical tensions, social unrest and growing ecological disruption. It also remains to be seen whether all AI investments will actually be profitable. What puzzles me is that people are investing heavily in companies that have never made a profit. There are quite a few examples these days."

Impact is key

De Vries believes that the unbridled optimism on the stock markets distracts from what investing should really be about: providing capital to companies and projects that offer solutions to pressing problems such as poverty, global warming and the loss of biodiversity. "Investing in this way ultimately not only yields a positive impact but also a good long-term return. That is why we adhere to a long-term strategy in which impact, rather than short-term profit, sets the tone."

What De Vries observes a one-sided investor focus on investments in defence and AI. That is what is driving share prices. AI-related shares sometimes achieved double-digit gains in 2025, in a single day. "Within a sustainable long-term strategy, you miss out on such exaggerated price spikes, but you also don't run the associated risks. As a result, our funds lagged slightly behind in 2025 but still achieved positive returns. More importantly, they made a clear contribution to the transition to a sustainable economy."

De Vries questions the ultimate social value of investments in defence and AI. He also doubts the sustainability of the AI hype on the stock market. "I expect the musical chairs to continue until the music stops – and then there may not be enough chairs. We saw this in the 1990s already.” He points to the need for broad diversification and discipline in order to pursue a true long-term strategy on a sustainable basis. According to him, the first cracks in AI hype-driven markets are becoming visible, making the transition to realistic valuation trajectories more likely.

Opportunities in 2026

De Vries sees opportunities in 2026 mainly in sectors that lagged behind in 2025, particularly infrastructure, renewable energy and small and mid-caps. In the financial sector, one of the stock market darlings of recent times, he sees consolidation taking place. “This is usually a sign that you should not expect big profits there for the time being." He expects small and mid-caps in particular to perform well, based on their attractive pricing. "The dominance of the seven mega-companies in major indices has led to distorted valuations. When that normalises, companies with robust fundamentals and reasonable valuations will benefit."

When asked about individual companies he is enthusiastic about, De Vries mentions Intuitive Surgical, an American company that fits perfectly within the Triodos theme of wellbeing. Using innovative systems, the company makes operations less stressful for patients. This not only leads to better outcomes for patients, but also to more efficient use of hospital beds. "This is exactly the kind of innovation that makes healthcare safer, more efficient and more humane," says De Vries.

He also speaks highly of ResMed, another American company, praising the impact its products have on people with respiratory disorders, such as sleep-related problems. Patients can monitor and treat their conditions from home, which offers more flexibility and reduces healthcare costs.

Anchored investing: back to the real economy

An important pillar of Triodos Investment Management's strategy is what De Vries calls 'anchored investing': providing capital to companies that make a clear and structural contribution to the real economy, people's well-being and the transition to a sustainable economy. In this way, investors can create value by investing in companies that increase social and ecological stability. 

De Vries: “We see anchored investing as a necessary counter-movement to the increasingly detached market dynamics: a way to reconnect capital flows with real value in the real economy, not with speculation. "In short, you invest in things that benefit people and the planet, not in hypes that markets rush to embrace."